In our last blog post we talked about the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and how the value is calculated every day. In this post, with a lot of help from WAPO columnist Allan Sloan, we will talk about what happened to the Dow when Apple split and then what the actual split, and other Dow 30 changes, mean to average investors like us. Get your calculators – or you can just trust my math!

Apple stock split

On Friday August 28, the Dow closed at 28,653.87. Over that weekend, Salesforce, Amgen and Honeywell were added to the Dow 30 and ExxonMobil, Pfizer and Raytheon were removed. Apple also split 3 for 1. And on Monday August 31, the Dow opened at, wait for it, 28,653.87. Remember that Tesla also split that weekend, BUT Tesla is not part of the Dow 30. None of these changes had any impact on the S&P 500.

Let’s look at what actually happened on the Dow:

On Friday the sum of the price of one share of each of the 30 components was $4177.68. The Dow Divisor was 0.1458. SO the closing price that day was the sum of the prices of 1 share of each stock, divided by the Dow Divisor. ($4177.68/.1458) or 28,653.87

• Next the prices of ExxonMobil, Pfizer and Honeywell were subtracted from $4177.68 and the closing prices for Salesforce, Amgen and Honeywell were added. Apple’s price was modified from $499.23 to $124.81
• When the prices for the new Dow 30 were added, the total was $4355.02. The new Dow Divisor, was then calculated to be 0.152 ($4355/28,653.87)
• Thus the closing DJIA on August 28 and the opening DJIA on August 31 were the same. The Dow Divisor moved from .146 to.152 to account for the changes and keep the DJIA constant.

So now what does all of this mean to us?

• On Friday before the stock split, Apple was by far the largest Dow 30 component at 12%. On Monday after the split, it was 3%. Because Apple has been such a hot stock, it has disproportionately impacted the Dow’s performance. On Monday, Apple gained $4.23 which moved the Dow by 28 points. If that had happened on Friday before the split, that same share price percentage increase would have moved the Dow by 116 points! Will the Dow’s growth slow due to this change? Could very well happen.
• The higher Dow Divisor should mean less volatility for the DJIA. On Monday when the Dow Divisor was higher, a $1 change in any share price moved the DJIA by 6.58 points. On Friday when the Dow Divisor was lower, that same $1 share price change moved the market by 6.86 points. Given the world we live in right now, we will take less market volatility any way we can get it.
• One of the stated reasons that companies undergo a stock split is to make their shares more accessible to average investors. Presumably more investors can afford a $125 share price rather than a $500 share price. While this is technically true, the vast majority of shares are owned by institutional buyers (mutual and pension funds) who are not worried about such mundane things. Additionally more brokerages are now offering partial share purchases to help investors buy some of these high priced individual stocks. Although pundits are split about equally on whether stocks go up or down after a split, this could be a good opportunity to buy some gift shares for your children or grandchildren.
• For any investors who own one of the two ETFs which track the Dow, this change triggers significant buying and selling of equities to match the new Dow. Luckily, ETFs are relatively tax efficient, so these changes should be inconsequential unless the ETFs are sold shortly after a major update.

Some of you have asked us this question over the last month so we finally decided to answer it. The real answer is a bit complicated but also quite interesting – in a geeky financial advisor sort of way. I learned a few things while I was researching this topic so hope you will too!

Now, before I get to that actual answer, we need to start with some information on the Dow Jones Industrial Average – yes, you are reading this right – which we will do in this post. And then we will actually attempt to answer the question in the next post.

Spoiler alert, you may need a calculator.

A bit of history and math: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, aka DJIA

The DJIA is comprised of 30 large publicly owned companies which trade on the NYSE and the NASDAQ. It is designed to serve as a proxy for the broader economy. When people refer to the “stock market,” they are most often referring to the DJIA. As the economy changes and industries or companies become more or less relevant OR the price gets too high or too low (more on that later), the Dow composition changes. In fact the composition has changed 60 times since 1928! In late August, Salesforce, Amgen and Honeywell were added to replace ExxonMobil, Pfizer and Raytheon. (GE was replaced in 2018.) And of course Apple shares split at the same time.

Trivia alert:

1884 Original 12 DJIA stocks: American Cotton Oil, American Sugar, American Tobacco, Chicago Gas, Distilling & Cattle Feeding, General Electric, Laclede Gas, National Lead, North American, Tennessee Coal & Iron, U.S. Leather pfd, U.S. Rubber

August 2020 DIJA stocks: 3M, American Express, Amgen, Apple, Boeing, Caterpillar, Chevron, Cisco, Coca Cola, Dow, Goldman Sachs, Home Depot, Honeywell, IBM, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, JP Morgan Chase, McDonalds, Merck, Microsoft, NIKE, Procter & Gamble, Salesforce, The Travelers Company, United Health, Verizon, Visa, Walmart, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Walt Disney

OK here is where the math comes in. Unlike the S&P 500 and other indexes which are market cap weighted, The DJIA is price weighted. That means that in the S&P 500, the largest companies have the most weight. In the DJIA, the companies with the most expensive share price have the most weight. This is why the Dow is very careful to avoid adding stocks which have very high prices – they will have a disproportionate impact on the average. Apple was added in 2014 after its 7 for 1 stock split. This also explains why Amazon probably will not be added anytime soon! Although this price weighting has its share of critics, and seems a bit silly to us now, in the late 1800’s when the DJIA was formed, share price was the only easy/possible thing to measure in real time. In truth, the Dow has actually performed eerily similarly to the Wilshire 5000 which is the largest U.S. stock index.

So how is the DJIA calculated?

The “Dow 30” is calculated every day by adding the price of one share of each of the component stocks, divided by the “Dow Divisor.” The Dow Divisor is just a mathematical constant designed to determine the effect of a $1 move in any of the 30 stocks. Obviously we wouldn’t need this complication if stocks never split, companies never merged or declared dividends, or there were no changes to the 30 stocks in the Dow 30. But that would just be too simple!

Dow Jones Industrial Average = sum of price of 1 share of each stock on Dow 30 divided by the ”Dow Divisor”

and of course

“Dow Divisor” = sum of price of 1 share of each stock on Dow 30 divided by the Dow Jones Industrial Average

We won’t attempt to understand or explain the Dow Divisor calculation, but just know that the Wall Street Journal has the job of ensuring that the Dow Divisor is appropriately adjusted to ensure that historical accuracy of the DJIA is maintained, regardless of market changes.

The current Dow Divisor is 0.146. Let’s just accept this, even though it feels like a circular argument!

The important part is that with this Dow Divisor value, every dollar change in price of any Dow 30 stock results in a DJIA change of 1/0.146 or 6.8 points.

Clearly, the most expensive stocks have the most influence on the average. And prior to its split, Apple was by far the most expensive and also fastest growing stock in the Dow.

Next up: So what did the Apple split do to the Dow and what does that mean for average investors like us?

We are sure this title got your attention and you can’t wait to see what piece of financial wisdom (or lack thereof) is inspiring us this time. Well in truth, we can’t possibly explain the market right now, so we decided to share a more personal and decidedly more important topic…

As some of you know, Marci and I, along with several of our clients and friends, are participating in the Pfizer Covid 19 vaccine trial. As you have undoubtedly heard, there is plenty of coronavirus here in Georgia. The good news about that is that both Moderna and Pfizer are conducting Phase 3 clinical trials here in Atlanta. We have gotten many questions already about what this is experience is like so we thought we would bring all of you on the journey with us. We will go back to our normally scheduled programming in two weeks…

So what exactly is the trial?

The Pfizer Phase 3 work is a double blind, placebo controlled trial with 30,000 participants in the U.S. What that means is that 15,000 of the participants will get the actual trial vaccine and the other half will get a saline (saltwater) injection. No one involved in the trial, including the doctors, the clinical staff or us, knows which we got/will get. There are two identical injections required and they are delivered about three weeks apart. This vaccine has successfully completed Phase 1 and Phase 2 trials which showed the vaccine to be generally well-tolerated and with an ability to generate some antibodies which will hopefully fight the disease. The purpose of the Phase 3 trial is to confirm the findings of Phase 1 and Phase 2 and hopefully prove that this vaccine actually works! As you know, there is no component of the Covid virus in this vaccine candidate.

How did the application process work?

This has been the most surprising part so far. We saw an advertisement for the trial on Facebook and completed a simple form with a name and email address. The next day, the clinical lab called and asked a few more questions – demographics, pre-existing health conditions and availability to come in the next day for the first injection. I assume we applied early and so there were openings for all demographics – basically everyone “gets in” at the beginning but as the recruiting continues, the criteria will likely get tougher as they need to fill slots in all demographic groups. We couldn’t wait to get started but we did talk to our primary care physicians, just to make sure they were aligned with the idea. As expected, they were absolutely fine with our participation!

What happened when we got the first injections?

Marci and I have both had our initial injections – we started about 10 days apart. The initial appointment was about ½ day. Clinical trials generally are measured in years or decades, not days or weeks so the efficiency of the lab could be improved. As much as we would have liked to take over and fix that, you will be delighted to know that we just laughed off that part. There is definitely a sense of urgency though because the sooner there are jabs in arms, the sooner there will be an answer on the efficacy of this vaccine!

After reading and signing about 50 pages of fine print disclaimers and forms, we got a brief physical, followed by the donation of several vials of blood and a Covid test. Although the Covid test absolutely brushed some cobwebs out of our brains, I continue to assert that if we can each give birth twice, we can handle a swab up our nose.

After that it was time for the vaccine – a bit anti-climactic for sure. After that we had to sit for 30 minutes and be cleared by one of the study doctors before we could leave. The doctors were looking for redness or swelling at the injection site. We didn’t have and neither did anyone else the days we were there. We also downloaded a phone app to track and report any side effects or Covid symptoms. And they paid $150 – which we will be investing of course.

And then what?

We were told that the side effects of the vaccine and the placebo after the first injection were reportedly quite mild in the initial phases. Both of us had the expected sore arms for the first day. The sore arm happens with the actual vaccine and the placebo. Neither of us experienced any other side effects. Again that could be because we got the actual vaccine and didn’t have any side effects OR because we got the saline injection. We obviously don’t know. We would have loved to wake up on Day 2 with a little fever to give us a hint that we got the real vaccine of course! Side effects are reportedly a little more common after the second dose but we will see.

How long the trial lasts depends on many variables but we will keep you posted. We are thrilled to be able to do our small part to make the world a healthier, safer and happier place! And we also want to see our parents and our kids, as we know many of you do!

Lori and Marci

Press Release

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Linder Financial Services Receives 2020 Best of Alpharetta Award

Alpharetta Award Program Honors the Achievement

ALPHARETTA July 22, 2020 — Linder Financial Services has been selected for the 2020 Best of Alpharetta Award in the Financial Advisor category by the Alpharetta Award Program.

Each year, the Alpharetta Award Program identifies companies that we believe have achieved exceptional marketing success in their local community and business category. These are local companies that enhance the positive image of small business through service to their customers and our community. These exceptional companies help make the Alpharetta area a great place to live, work and play.

Various sources of information were gathered and analyzed to choose the winners in each category. The 2020 Alpharetta Award Program focuses on quality, not quantity. Winners are determined based on the information gathered both internally by the Alpharetta Award Program and data provided by third parties.

About Alpharetta Award Program

The Alpharetta Award Program is an annual awards program honoring the achievements and accomplishments of local businesses throughout the Alpharetta area. Recognition is given to those companies that have shown the ability to use their best practices and implemented programs to generate competitive advantages and long-term value.

The Alpharetta Award Program was established to recognize the best of local businesses in our community. Our organization works exclusively with local business owners, trade groups, professional associations and other business advertising and marketing groups. Our mission is to recognize the small business community’s contributions to the U.S. economy.

SOURCE: Alpharetta Award Program

In our last post, we talked about what a recession actually is. This week, we will talk about what it means to us as investors.

As you know, we do not give individual investment advice on the Blog since each of you have different situations and different plans. But there are a few ideas which all of us can use.

1. Stick to the BIG plan but be ready to adjust the SMALL plan.

As we have talked with all of you over the last quarter, we have continued to emphasize the importance of sticking to the plan! But let’s be honest – that is really easy to say and really hard to do! For many of you that have been through significant stock market volatility (mostly downward!) before or have decades until retirement, you lost a little sleep and didn’t look at the spreadsheet with lots of red too closely. For others, this has been a time of significant concern and second guessing. This has been the first significant market downturn since I joined LFS and I too have had times of concern and second guessing – and I do this for a living! At the end of the day, if you are too worried about your investments to sleep, we need to make a change. We can and will do that with you.

Remember that we are for you – regardless of where you fall on the “worry” scale!

2. Diversification is more important than ever.

We often talk about this and as you look at your own results, you can see why we do. Those fixed income bond holdings have been steady, but not superb performers over the last few years – as planned. But all of us have been really glad we had them over the last several months. Large cap stocks and technology have recovered the fastest so far. Other asset classes and industries hopefully have more upside to come. Expect some portfolio re-balancing to come as asset classes perform very differently through this period.

3. There are opportunities for those with a strong stomach.

It’s really hard to invest when the market is terrible rather than when it’s improving but if you can bear to do it, there are plenty of choices. For those of you that are dollar cost averaging every month and/or re-investing your dividends, you are automatically getting some of the upside.

As you know, we recommend a strong cash or cash reserve position. For some of you, that’s to ensure that you have ample cash for living expenses without having to sell into a bad market. For others, it’s more like a little dry powder for some good potential market opportunities. These market opportunities might be stocks you have always wanted to own but deemed too expensive or funds in industries you think might be near the bottom of the economic cycle (maybe airlines or lodging) or asset classes like small cap equities. It’s a good time to have a “wish list” and maybe some limit orders!

We also have started talking to some of you about some interesting new funds which are designed to take advantage of the new world we all live in now. For example there is an ETF which holds stocks in Covid testing companies and potential therapeutics/vaccines. There is also a brand new ETF which holds stocks in companies which enable employees to work from home (think ZOOM and cloud computing). These are high risk funds but might be interesting to some of you. I wouldn’t invest my entire life savings in these but I might put a few dollars here. There has to be some positive news about this pandemic! If there are other industries you are interested in, challenge us to find some options for you!

The first of our two part blog will focus on what a recession actually is and then our follow up will talk about the implications.

Defining a recession, and then understanding if we are actually in one, should be easy, right? Uh, not so much….

When all of us took macroeconomics in school, the textbook definition of a recession was “ a two consecutive quarter decline in gross domestic product (GDP)” along with some other monthly economic signals, like rising unemployment. This definition was relatively straightforward and easy to measure. Either we have two consecutive quarters of GDP decline or we don’t. Even I could almost figure this out.

Now however, a recession must actually be “declared” by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The word “recession” is defined by NBER and Investopedia as a “significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income and employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.” At least now we understand why there is a question about whether or not we are in a recession AND why there is some debate week in and week out about it, even now.

Normally the NBER looks at certain monthly economic indicators to determine if we are in a recession rather than waiting for two quarters of GDP decline. The NBER officially declared a recession in February 2020. Historically, recessions have been caused by financial factors, economic factors and/or psychological factor or by structural shifts in industries – like oil price changes or new breakthrough technologies. There is little doubt among economists that we have had a severe economic downturn, caused by the COVID-19 epidemic. What experts are still debating is whether we are now in a short term period of economic recovery, a long term period of economic recovery growth or a plateau. Of course as we all know, by the time we get to Part 2 of this Blog, the economy could be in a completely different phase.

It’s been 10 years since our last declared recession. And although we all realize that recessions are a normal part of the business cycle, that doesn’t make it any easier. We were absolutely due for an economic downturn, but this one came on quickly and violently, and is greatly exacerbated by the real fear of the COVID-19 virus.

Next up: What are the implications of a recession to us as investors?